For decades, enterprise software vendors have dictated the rules of the game. They told you when to upgrade, what to pay, and how to align your business strategy with their product roadmap. But in 2025, that dynamic is shifting — and not in the vendors’ favor.
Two themes stand out from today’s digital landscape:
- SAP’s ongoing push to force premature upgrades (with questionable ROI for customers)
- The rise of AI microservices that could disrupt ERP as we know it
Let’s unpack both.
SAP’s ROI Problem: A Cautionary Tale
Imagine investing 5–7 years of your organization’s time, money, and resources into implementing SAP ECC — only to be told, before the ink is even dry, that you now need to upgrade to S/4HANA.
That’s the reality for many companies today. Business cases built on 7–10 year ROI horizons are being cut short by vendor sunset policies and forced migrations.
The question leaders should be asking:
👉 Why would we reinvest in another “upgrade” when we haven’t even realized the value of the last one?
It’s a fair question. Too often, ERP vendors act with the same arrogance that doomed once-dominant tech players like BlackBerry. Instead of listening to customers and delivering value, they assume lock-in will carry them forward. History shows it won’t.
For executives, the path forward is clear:
- Sweat the asset — extend the life of your existing ERP until it delivers the value you paid for.
- Leverage third-party support to buy time and reduce costs.
- Own your timeline — don’t let vendors dictate when “it’s time” to upgrade.
AI Skepticism: Toddler or Titan?
Some argue that AI is too immature to be trusted with something as complex as ERP selection, negotiations, or transformation. And in some ways, they’re right — AI still makes mistakes and lacks contextual judgment.
But dismissing it outright is short-sighted. AI is like a toddler: unpredictable at times, but growing rapidly and capable of surprising strengths. The key is governance and training. Without thoughtful oversight, it will produce garbage. With the right inputs, it can reshape how organizations approach transformation.
At Third Stage, we’re even training AI models on 20+ years of consulting experience to capture what really drives digital transformation success — lessons that generic, public models don’t understand.
Nvidia’s Microservices: The Bigger Disruption
While ERP vendors push costly “cloud upgrades,” Nvidia is quietly rolling out something that could make entire categories of enterprise software obsolete.
With its new AI Enterprise 5.0, Nvidia is offering microservices that:
- Cut AI app deployment times from weeks to minutes
- Standardize model deployment and scaling across AWS, Google, Azure
- Connect directly to enterprise data (Box, Cloudera, etc.)
- Provide specialized services for logistics, speech AI, and even climate simulations
This isn’t just a supplement to ERP — it’s a potential replacement. If AI microservices can access, transact, and interpret enterprise data directly, why funnel everything through a monolithic ERP at all?
The implications are massive:
- ERP, HCM, CRM, supply chain, and BI platforms all face disruption
- Organizations may begin building composable, AI-driven architectures instead of single-vendor suites
- Vendor lock-in weakens as interoperability and flexibility increase
What This Means for Transformation Leaders
The old playbook — selecting a vendor, following their roadmap, and accepting their upgrade cycle — is dying. The new playbook looks like this:
- Challenge vendor timelines and ROI assumptions
- Invest in interoperability layers that free you from single-vendor dependency
- Experiment with AI and microservices now to understand where they fit in your future architecture
- Keep strategy first, software second — technology should serve your business, not the other way around
Final Thought
SAP’s forced upgrade tactics and Nvidia’s microservices are two sides of the same coin. One shows the dangers of clinging to the past. The other signals the possibilities of the future.
The winners in this new era won’t be those who blindly follow vendors — they’ll be the leaders who take control of their own roadmaps.
Next Steps for Leaders
If you’re weighing your ERP options or exploring how AI might disrupt your enterprise stack, here are resources to dive deeper:
